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Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 16 brokers · 400 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-11.

Sixteen brokers carry DocuSign, and their models tell a narrower story than the headline P&L: growth reaccelerates to +8.6% in FY-2027 before easing to +7.4% in FY-2028, and essentially all of the incremental ARR is IAM. Gross margin is modeled flat near 82%, so the profit improvement comes from opex leverage and a shrinking share count rather than mix. The FY-2027 lines are anchored tightly to guidance; FY-2028 is where the models actually disagree.

Growth peaks at +8.6% in FY-2027, then eases to +7.4% in FY-2028 — an arc, not a trend

Line FY-2025A FY-2026A FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Revenue — — — — — —
Total revenue $2.96bn $3.21bn $3.50bn $3.76bn +8.9% 16
Total revenue, YoY(%) 7.2% 7.9% 8.6% 7.4% +0.7pt 16
ARR — — — — — —
ARR $3.11bn $3.33bn $3.55bn $3.83bn +6.5% 11
Net new ARR $164.34m $211.63m $277.90m $278.69m +31.3% 11
Customers — — — — — —
Number of customers >$300k ACV(#) 1,093 Number 1,176 Number 1,346 Number 1,473 Number +14.5% 4
Enterprise and commercial customers(#) 261,008 Number 280,564 Number 298,054 Number 316,201 Number +6.2% 7
Total customers(#) 1.64m Number 1.82m Number 1.98m Number 2.14m Number +9.0% 7

Key drivers

Brokers take IAM from 18.0% of ARR in FY-2027 to 23.8% in FY-2028, so the modeled recovery is a mix shift inside a flat base rather than broad demand. Coverage narrows quickly on the out-year: 9 brokers carry IAM ARR for FY-2027 and only 5 for FY-2028.

Line FY-2025A FY-2026A FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
ARR - IAM — — $639.26m $912.58m — 9
ARR - Net additions - IAM — — $285.91m $272.78m — 8
ARR - IAM % of ARR(%) — — 18.0% 23.8% — 9
Net new ARR $164.34m $211.63m $277.90m $278.69m +31.3% 11
ARR $3.11bn $3.33bn $3.55bn $3.83bn +6.5% 11

FY-2027 is anchored to guidance; the FY-2028 IAM ramp is where brokers actually split

Line Period Median Q1–Q3 Min–max Brokers
ARR - IAM FY-2028E $924.45m $869.22m–$971.83m $791.31m–$1.01bn 5
Net new ARR FY-2028E $298.21m $242.38m–$304.94m $212.61m–$321.31m 10
Number of customers >$300k ACV(#) FY-2028E 1,424 Number 1,400 Number–1,498 Number 1,343 Number–1,700 Number 4
Operating income/(loss) - Operating FY-2028E $1.17bn $1.16bn–$1.19bn $1.14bn–$1.27bn 15
Free cash flow FY-2028E $1.24bn $1.23bn–$1.28bn $1.19bn–$1.35bn 12

Key drivers

Line FY-2025A FY-2026A FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Margins — — — — — —
Gross margin(%) 82.1% 81.8% 81.8% 82.1% -0.0pt 16
Operating margin(%) 29.6% 29.8% 30.8% 31.3% +1.0pt 16
FCF margin(%) 29.7% 30.6% 32.7% 33.3% +2.1pt 15
Rule of 40, Revenue growth + Operating margin(%) 36.9% 37.7% 39.5% 38.7% +1.8pt 16
Cash per share — — — — — —
Free cash flow $879.86m $981.07m $1.14bn $1.25bn +16.4% 15
Free cash flow (FCF) per share($) $4.20 $4.68 $5.93 $6.73 +26.7% 15
Shares - Diluted - Operating(M#) 209.48m Number 209.61m Number 192.51m Number 186.98m Number -8.2% 16

The segment, geography and retention lines are one or two analysts, not consensus

Net dollar retention is a single broker at 102.5% for FY-2027 and FY-2028, the US/International split is one model throughout, and the enterprise-versus-web revenue split falls to two brokers by FY-2027 — none of these should be read as consensus. ARR is the reverse of the usual pattern: 11 brokers model FY-2027 but only 2 carry FY-2026, so the base beneath the forecast is thinly supported. The P&L and cash lines are well covered and current, with the freshest revisions dated 2026-06-11.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.